Evolução do PIB pela ótica da demanda final: 2011-2018

Abstract

ABSTRACT

The article consists of three sections and the Introduction. The first section is about Keynes' theory of effective demand, emphasizing its components such as consumption, investment, public spending, exports and imports, highlighting the importance of the propensity to consume, the interest rate, and marginal efficiency of capital, the external sector, and fiscal and monetary policies. In the second section, is observed the loss of dynamism of the Brazilian economy in the period 2011-2018, trying to demonstrate that the variations in GDP and employment are mainly due to the variation in the level of investment. In the period 2011-2014, the growth of the investment rate was attributed to the expansive monetary policy, and the increase in household consumption was mainly due to changes in monetary, exchange and income policies, which improved income distribution, increasing the propensity to consume. In the 2015-2016 period, although the external sector made a positive contribution to growth, the sharp economic and employment downturn was due to restrictive monetary and fiscal policies and political instability, which culminated with the impeachment of Dilma Roussef, and which negatively affecting the expectations of economic agents and the investment rate. The timid economic recovery in 2017 and 2018 was a result of the expansive monetary policy. In terms of participation in relation to GDP, it was noted in the period 2011-2018, the increase in household and government consumption, a significant drop in the investment rate and a significant increase in the degree of openness of the economy to the flow of trade. Finally, the third section presents the Conclusions and Final Considerations.

KEYWORDS: Final demand, Investment rate, Consumption, External sector, John Maynard Keynes.